Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 9.235471 10.621253 12.120817 13.861118 15.822142 17.960358 20.465074
2025-04-20 7.343595 9.239703 11.456344 14.226768 17.583314 21.504272 26.416227
2025-04-27 6.361526 8.479803 11.081131 14.487373 18.803894 24.063259 30.924576
2025-05-04 5.465127 7.679752 10.523766 14.407090 19.528971 26.005790 34.760265
2025-05-11 4.733572 6.970816 9.959515 14.192675 19.972903 27.519369 38.032834
2025-05-18 4.220251 6.486114 9.623323 14.215734 20.683557 29.370021 41.798205
2025-05-25 3.840071 6.138041 9.425514 14.384040 21.564956 31.456510 45.948305
2025-06-01 3.467089 5.754899 9.131892 14.372336 22.163946 33.154862 49.617517
2025-06-08 3.114154 5.361438 8.780242 14.232066 22.543682 34.534910 52.874152
2025-06-15 2.870137 5.111714 8.618238 14.351567 23.294633 36.463171 56.986010
2025-06-22 2.721877 5.000773 8.657633 14.774195 24.514358 39.122590 62.276618
2025-06-29 2.468407 4.686860 8.343615 14.607517 24.799809 40.380639 65.511112
2025-07-06 2.125317 4.188034 7.692144 13.856372 24.129510 40.168400 66.539107
2025-07-13 2.009324 4.082321 7.691991 14.181087 25.207599 42.717932 71.955601
2025-07-20 1.896540 3.969702 7.667339 14.455317 26.207073 45.175592 77.318003
2025-07-27 1.739365 3.756760 7.446666 14.370232 26.591501 46.653148 81.168106
2025-08-03 1.580317 3.523166 7.167876 14.158006 26.737517 47.735389 84.407551
2025-08-10 1.468163 3.371346 7.026649 14.180425 27.285409 49.498217 88.827986
2025-08-17 1.384104 3.268388 6.968470 14.348564 28.094383 51.727791 94.108319
2025-08-24 1.286069 3.125695 6.821269 14.336813 28.573596 53.407767 98.518365
2025-08-31 1.182763 2.960583 6.615772 14.196879 28.805073 54.660589 102.236491
2025-09-07 1.115173 2.867521 6.547136 14.316107 29.518560 56.780106 107.526876
2025-09-14 1.081730 2.848822 6.629345 14.737803 30.820710 59.993494 114.849799